Gold Canyon Home Sales – 2008 vs 2009

 

 

How have home sales and prices done in the Gold Canyon Arizona market in 2009 verses 2008. I recently did a search in our local Multiple Listing Service to find out for myself  how we compared so far to last year. The numbers above are from January 1st through August 28th of each year. As you can see, the number of sales in 2009 are up 34% over the sales in 2008. The other good news is it it taking less time to sell the homes that are on the market by 23 days. The problem is that the average sales price is down  about 23% and as can also see, the average sales price per square foot dropped by 24%.

Part of the reason for these statistics is the fact that Gold Canyon has not escaped lender owned and short sale properties that continue to come on the market. According to RealtyTrac.com who tracks foreclosures throughout the country, Gold Canyon currently has an inventory of 187 properties that are lender owned.  There are also 67 properties that are currently in some state of foreclosure.  Many of these foreclosure or pre-foreclosure properties will end up on the market as short sales. We are very fortunate that even with these forclosures, the values in Gold Canyon have not dropped near as much as other parts of the valley. Gold Canyon continues to be a very desirable place to live.

The chart above is from a local Arizona analyst and is called the Cromford Report. This chart does a great job in visually showing sales from 2001 through July of 2009.  You can see the peak years of 2004 through 2006 and can also see that it appears that we have hit a bottom and are gradually seeing an increase in property values. Although it will take some time to see if the bottoming is sustained, I don’t see any reason at this point to expect anything other than a firming up of sales prices in the Gold Canyon area and prices to increase once we see the inventory of homes come down further.

I am asked almost on a daily basis how the market is and if we are selling homes? People are surprised to hear that we are selling houses everyday and the market is getting better all the time. Concerned about the value of your home or the market in your area? Give me a call and let’s talk about it. There is never a cost or obligation for me to take a look at your home and your situation and give you my opinion. At least it will give you the information you need to be able to make an intelligent decision on what to do next. There may be a few more bumps in the road ahead, but we will make it through and one day this will all nothing but a memory.

ARIZONA HOUSING RECOVERY

 

In a recent article I was reading, I came across this map showing state by state when they were predicted to see a housing recovery ( http://tinyurl.com/d6durw ). As you can see, Arizona is actually one of the first states predicted to see a recovery in 2009. Although this map was published in April of this year, in my view, I have not seen anything that has fundamentally changed in our market since that time. We continue to see strengthening in the market and inventories continue to decline. There is still a mad rush of people trying to scoop up the bargains in the outlying areas of the Valley while they last. The $8,000 tax credit is slated to end on November 30th and I believe we will see continued pressure from first time home buyers taking advantage of this credit and this market.

The only way to really know when we have seen a recovery and what states were affected first, will only come with hindsight.  I would tell you that there are probably as many predictions out there are there are people who predict. I am not one of those people. I do try to watch the market and stay abreast of what others are saying about the market. I would also tell you that I tend to rely more heavily on local statistics and not as much on the National ones. Things can vary greatly from state to state and region to region and generalizing can be dangerous. The other problem I see with National statistics is they are typically behind. Often what you read about or hear on the news is data that is months old. In this changing economy, a lot can happen in a few months.

Here is what I do feel comfortable telling you. We are at historically low interest rates. We are at historically low housing prices. If you take out your own crystal ball and try to predict where you think housing prices and interest rates will go from here, I think there is only one direction you will see and that is UP.Yes,we will continue to see short sales over the next couple of years. Yes, we will continue to see foreclosures and lenders trying to sell off the foreclosed homes they have in inventory. But I believe at this point it will be at a manageable pace and the market will continue to absorb them as they come on. Whether you are looking for your first home, for a bargain on a second home or just looking for a good real estate investment, don’t kick yourself later by letting this opportunity pass you buy. I don’t want to have to look any of you in the eye one day and say, “I told you so.”